Only a victory for the English team in the competition guarantees direct entry into the Champions League group stage for the second-placed team in the Portuguese league: be it Sporting, Benfica… or even FC Porto. But Portugal could still have two clubs directly qualified in 2026/27 if Sporting Braga wins the Europa League. Understand the scenarios.
Portugal still has a chance of having the second-placed team in the league directly qualify for the 2026/27 Champions League group stage via the Europa League winner, but hopes for this to happen now depend, from this Thursday onwards, on the success of Aston Villa, one of the four semi=finalists in the competition .
This is because the Birmingham team, after the semi-final qualifiers were finalized, is the only one currently in direct Champions League qualification via the league. And the only one with a chance of achieving that qualification domestically. And, if they manage to do so through the Premier League and also win the Europa League, they open up their Europa League winner’s spot for the club with the best individual coefficient among all those qualified for the Champions League preliminary rounds (Champions Path and League Path).
It is now practically certain that this status will belong to a Portuguese club, regardless of who finishes second in the Portuguese League. It’s true that the French league qualifies one club for the Champions League preliminary rounds, but PSG (coefficient of 126.500), leading their league with 63 points and two games in hand with five rounds remaining = and the only club ahead of FC Porto, Sporting, and Benfica in the UEFA club ranking = will almost certainly qualify directly for one of the top three spots: they have an 11-point advantage over fourth-placed Marseille (52).
And after PSG, the teams with the best coefficients on the list of potential substitutes for the Europa League winner’s spot are Benfica (coefficient of 90.000), Sporting (84.000) and FC Porto (80.750). Therefore, it is Sporting, currently second in the league, that provisionally occupies this potential Europa League substitute spot. And if they maintain this position and Aston Villa wins the Europa League = qualifying for the Champions League via the league – they will enter directly into the league phase. The same will happen for FC Porto and Benfica if they finish second in the Portuguese League, in case of domestic and European success for Unai Emery’s team.
It’s true that Freiburg, eighth in the Bundesliga with 40 points, still has a slim chance of qualifying for the Champions League through the German league… but that possibility never affects the possibility of losing the Europa League winner’s spot. For them to qualify domestically, Germany (which qualifies four clubs directly) would have to overtake Spain in the season ranking for the extra spot (the Spanish are second with 21,405 points and the Germans third with 21,214), meaning the fifth-placed team in the Bundesliga would also qualify. And fifth place is the best Freiburg can achieve, although it’s already a mirage: Bayer Leverkusen occupies that position with 52 points (12 more than Freiburg, with only 15 points left to play for), and Hoffenheim (51) and Eintracht Frankfurt (42) are ahead of Sporting Braga’s next European opponent. However, if Germany were to secure the extra Champions League spot and Freiburg finished fifth and won the Europa League, the club would qualify for the Champions League as the Europa League winner, and the extra spot eventually earned by Germany would go to the sixth=placed team in their league.
Nottingham Forest, currently 16th in the Premier League with 33 points, has no chance of qualifying for the Champions League domestically, as does Sporting Braga, fourth with 52 points, 24 points behind leaders FC Porto, who can only accumulate a maximum of 70 points in their remaining six matches.
However, besides this scenario of direct qualification for the second-placed team in the league, it remains possible that Portugal could have two clubs directly in the Champions League league stage next season, should Sporting Braga win the Europa League. In that case, they would join the national champions, forcing the second=placed team in the Portuguese championship to go through the qualifying rounds. And that would be the most likely scenario for Portugal to have three clubs in the main club competition next season, given that the race for the extra spot = despite Sporting Braga still being in contention = is almost lost (Portugal is fourth in the season ranking with 20,100 points, already some distance behind Spain and Germany). It’s worth remembering that England, leading the season ranking with 26,569 points, has already secured one of two extra spots).