The league ends this Saturday, and the second place, fifth place (which could grant a European spot), two automatic relegation spots, and a playoff spot are still up for grabs. These are the scenarios for the eight clubs still with decisions to be made on the field.
The 2025/26 League concludes this Saturday, with kickoff at 3:30 PM, but the big matches will be decided in the 6:00 PM (for survival) and 8:30 PM (for European places) games.
With FC Porto already crowned champions, AVS relegated, and Sporting Braga having secured fourth place, there are other decisions still at stake.
Sporting and Benfica are fighting for second place (which grants access to the Champions League), Famalicão and Gil Vicente are vying for fifth place (which could grant access to the Conference League if Sporting wins the Portuguese Cup), and Nacional, Estrela da Amadora, Casa Pia, and Tondela are battling to avoid relegation. Two clubs will be relegated directly, one will go to the play=offs, and another will be relegated. In the worst-case scenario, Nacional will have to play in the play-offs. FOLLOW ALL THE GAMES, MINUTE BY MINUTE.
Matchday 34 (Saturday, May 16):
FC Porto=Santa Clara, 3:30 PM;
Moreirense=AVS, 3:30 PM;
Nacional=Vitoria, 6:00 PM;
Sp. Braga=Estrela, 6:00 PM;
Casa Pia=Rio Ave, 6:00 PM;
Arouca=Tondela, 6:00 PM;
Sporting=Gil Vicente, 8:30 PM;
Estoril=Benfica, 8:30 PM;
Famalicao=Alverca, 8:30 PM
THE EUROPEAN ACCOUNTS:
Sporting secures second place:
= If they win
= If they don’t win and Benfica doesn’t win
Benfica secures second place:
= If and only if they win and Sporting doesn’t win.
Famalicao secures fifth place:
= If they get points
= If they lose and Gil Vicente doesn’t win
Gil Vicente secures fifth place:
= If and only if they win and Famalicao loses.
MAINTENANCE COSTS:
NATIONAL
Nacional guarantees its stay in the league:
= If it scores points
= If it loses and, between Estrela and Casa Pia, one of them doesn’t win.
Nacional will go to the play-offs:
= If and only if they lose and Estrela and Casa Pia win.
NOTE: Even if the match between Estrela and Casa Pia were still tied at 32 points, Nacional would still have the advantage in the three-way head-to-head record: they have eight points and a 5-1 goal difference, Estrela has seven points and a 10-6 goal difference, and Casa Pia has one point and a 3-11 goal difference. They also have an advantage over Estrela, Casa Pia, and Tondela individually.
STAR
Estrela guarantees its stay in the league:
= If it wins
= If it draws and Casa Pia and Tondela don’t win
= If it loses, Casa Pia loses and Tondela doesn’t win
Estrela will go to the play-offs:
= If they draw and, between Casa Pia and Tondela, one of them wins and the other doesn’t
= If they lose and one of these two scenarios happens: Casa Pia scores points and Tondela loses, or Casa Pia loses and Tondela wins
Estrela will be relegated to the Second Division:
= If they draw and Casa Pia and Tondela win
= If they lose and Casa Pia and Tondela get points
NOTES: In a possible tie at 29 points with Estrela and Casa Pia, Estrela would have the advantage: they have seven points and a 9-5 goal difference, Tondela seven points and a 4-2 goal difference, and Casa Pia three points and a 5-11 goal difference. Estrela wins in the head=to=head against Casa Pia, but loses to Nacional and Tondela.
CASA PIA
Casa Pia guarantees its permanence:
= If it wins and one of these two scenarios occurs: Estrela does not win (regardless of Nacional’s result), or Estrela wins provided Nacional loses
= If it draws, Estrela loses and Tondela does not win
Casa Pia in the play-off:
= If they win, Nacional scores points and Estrela wins
= If they draw and one of these two scenarios happens: Estrela scores points and Tondela loses, or Tondela wins and Estrela loses.
= If they lose and Tondela loses
Casa Pia will be relegated if:
= They draw, Estrela scores points, and Tondela wins
= They lose and Tondela scores points
NOTES: As mentioned above, Casa Pia is the worst in any possible three-club tie (with Nacional and Estrela tied at 32 points and with Estrela and Tondela tied at 29 points) and loses to Nacional and Estrela individually. With Tondela, they are tied on head-to-head record, so the tiebreaker is the overall goal difference in the league. Currently, both teams have the same negative goal difference of 26 goals (Casa Pia 30-56 and Tondela 26-52), so if only Casa Pia and Tondela finish with 29 points, it means Casa Pia will have a worse goal difference, because for both to have 29 points, Casa Pia has to lose and Tondela has to draw.
Tondela
Tondela guarantees its place in the league:
= If and only if it wins and Estrela and Casa Pia don’t win.
Tondela will go to the play-offs:
= If they win and, between Estrela and Casa Pia, one of them doesn’t win
= If they draw and, between Estrela and Casa Pia, one of them loses, or both lose
Tondela will be relegated
if they achieve the same or worse results than Estrela and Casa Pia.